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To Regress or Not to Regress? By Frank Scoblete
My colleagues in Golden Touch™ Craps Inc., Dominator and Mr. Finesse, are advocates of regression betting as a means of securing wins and avoiding losses. A typical regression play, called the $110 one-hit-and-down, would go like this:
The shooter has established his point. You place $110 inside; that's $25 on the 5 and 9, $30 on the 6 and 8. The shooter has 18 ways to hit these four numbers. If he does, the payoff is $35 on the first hit. Once that hit takes place, you lower your bet to $22 across, securing a profit of $13. Now, the rest of this shooter's roll is pure profit.
The thinking here is that the player has a 50-percent chance of winning this wager on any given roll as there are 36 possible combinations of which the 'one-hit-and-down' bettor has 18 of them favoring him. How long would you leave your $110 at risk? Some players would leave it up until it hits or loses to the 7. Others will give themselves a few shots at it before pulling it back.
Betting '$32 across' in craps (6 December 2010) Should you flout Basic Strategy in blackjack – and, if so, when and why? (29 November 2010) How to design a slot machine (22 November 2010) How do the gurus get video poker expert strategy and should you follow it? (15 November 2010) Probability and order in gambling (8 November 2010).
- Is '$32 across' a good bet? The casino's edge exceeds that on Pass or Come bets at craps or in well-played blackjack, but is on a par with wagers at baccarat and below those in most other table games. The decision rate is high so the toll of house advantage can add up fast.
- Double your money fast craps strategy - Duration: 18:43. Regression obsession Larry Casper 1,420 views. Craps Hawaii — $32 Across vs $44 Inside (Viewer Requested) - Duration: 44:14.
- If your best craps strategy is to continually practice the pass line bet and the max out the odds, then the house edge drops to just 0.374%. The playing table does not have a free place for the wager and gamblers should place it as they put the chips behind the pass line wager. You should position the bet after the establishment of the point.
Is this a good way to wager? Actually, yes, it is, well, kind of.
In a random game of craps, where the 7 is always a 1 in 6 probability, the house edge is a fixed mark, in the case of placing the 'inside numbers' of 5, 6, 8, and 9, that mark is about 2.6 percent. What that means is that the player making the 'inside numbers' bet will lose 2.6 percent of all the money he wagers – in the long run. If on one bet he has $110 at risk and on other bets he only has $22 at risk, the house edge is working on some average amount between the two extremes.
Of course, when regression betting is working to perfection (meaning it's violating the probability gods) and an inside number is hit early and often on shooter after shooter; it is a guaranteed one-roll win per shooter. But when the 7 shows before an inside number, the loss is brutal. Once you've lost the $110, if you continue to regress on future shooters as you planned will take approximately 10 shooters in a row to get past that first hit or one shooter to have a monster roll as you collect on your $22 across in $7 increments. Yeow!
How often will you be wiped off the board before an inside number can be hit? You'll win 18 times on your numbers, lose six times on that abominable 7. That means you'll win 3 times for a win of $35 + $35 +$35 = $105; then you'll lose once for a loss of $110. You're $5 in the hole. You'll have the same effects once you regress down to $22 across. You'll win $7 + $7 +$7 = $21 but you'll lose the fourth bet for $22. You'll be down $1.
The math of craps is annoying because it won't go away; it's implacable, like a dreaded in-law. While regression betting does reduce the house's take on your money, it does so because you are betting less, not because you have come up with a way to beat the game or reduce the house edge.
Still, 75 percent of the time using the above regression will result in being ahead of the game on a particular shooter. If you come to a casino and jump out ahead on the first few shooters, you're now in the catbird's seat. You might even consider changing your attack to stop going up on that $110 inside and instead continue with $22 inside on subsequent shooters.
Not all regressions are as drastic as the $110 and down that I've just explained. You could, for example, put $44 inside and when it hits once, go to a six dollar 6 and 8. A single hit on $44 inside would see you win $14. Now with just $12 at risk on the 6 and 8, you are ahead $2. Again such a betting strategy cannot turn a negative into a positive; the house has its damnable edge on each and every bet you make in a random game betting those inside numbers.
Is regression betting worth considering? Yes, it is, if you can stomach putting a lot down and losing it to a 'point-seven out' which will happen often enough to make even those with the strongest stomachs queasy.
Do I enjoy regression betting? No, I do not. As a general rule, once I've gone with a shooter (after assiduously applying the Captain's 5-Count), I'm usually on that shooter come hell or high water. (Is high water considered good in this expression?) I prefer to take the risk to go for the bigger win by keeping my initial bets at their initial levels. But in math terms, against random rollers, I am giving the house a better whack at me than had I regressed.
For controlled shooters, regression betting is probably a more powerful strategy than it is on random shooters. Why? Because controlled shooters will have a tendency to hit certain numbers more than their probabilities indicate (most merely attempt to avoid the 7) – and they will tend to have somewhat longer than average rolls. The longer a controlled shooter rolls, the better the chance that fatigue or distraction will alter his throw, either making the game random once again or, worse, precipitating the appearance of the 7. There is an intriguing speculation amongst the brain trust of Golden Touch™ that controlled shooters, when they are the least off, tend to hit more 7s than normal because they are still changing the nature of the game but, being off slightly, they are changing it for the worse! A regression bettor can capitalize on that and lock up wins before the 7 shows.
Regression betting has its advocates and its opponents. Some people swear by it; some swear at it. In the final analysis, against random shooters, you're betting less; against controlled shooters, you might be getting in for some significant hits before coming down. If you like this as an idea, try it out on your next casino trip and see if you like it as much in reality.
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author. His books and tapes have sold over a million copies. He is executive director of Golden Touch™ Craps dice-control seminars. His websites are www.scoblete.com and www.goldentouchcraps.com . For a free brochure or more information call: 1-800-944-0406 or write to: Paone Press, Box 610, Lynbrook, NY 11563.
32 Across Craps Strategy For Beginners
What is the 'Best' Progression for You?
You have read the books, you have taken the class and you have practiced your throw religiously for several weeks. You are finally to the point where you feel you can go attack the casino and make a 'withdrawal' at the craps table. When you finally arrive you notice a table that has your position available and it is not very crowded. You move to the table, buy in and the dice are about to be passed to you. You focus on the dice in the center of the table; determine what you need to do to quickly set the dice. The stickman slides the dice in your direction. You quickly set them, focus on your spot and launch them. They travel beautifully together, land softly, touch the back wall and die together. Your point is established and you place the six and eight for $12 each. You continue to roll for who knows how long. You are completely in the zone, hitting number after number. You are oblivious to your surroundings. All you energy and attention is on the dice. Eventually you are pulled from your zone by the inevitable words: 'Seven-out, line away.' You look at your watch – you have been rolling for 35 minutes. You are ecstatic. Everything has worked just the way you dreamed. Then you look at your chip rack and put the haphazardly placed collection of chips in order and count them. You find you are up 15 units. This is great, you think, but with a 35-minute roll it should have been more. Then it dawns on you – you did not press your bets.
32 Across Craps Strategy Rules
This is a very common occurrence among those who are reasonably new to careful shooting. You get into the zone and just don't think about anything but throwing the dice. What you need to do is find a way to increase your bets and do it in a nearly automatic way. There are many progression methods available, but many of them require some mental gymnastics that tend to throw you out of the zone. Keep in mind that it is always prudent to only increase your bets on profits. If you are betting the six and eight, you will need at least two wins – three is better – before starting any progression. If you are betting the inside numbers you need three to four wins before increasing your bets.
Two of the simplest progressions are the press-and-pull (or the pull-and-press variant) and the up-a-unit. As the name implies, the press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits. For example you place a $6 six. The first time it hits you take $6 of the $7 you win and press the six to $12. The next time a six rolls you take the $14 win (pull) and put it in your rack. Next hit on the six you use $12 of you $14 win and press the six to $24, etc. Since the dealer automatically knows the amounts you need in order to press a bet, the only thing you need to remember is whether you want to press or pull. This can be easily tracked by putting the same number of chips as you have place bets flat in the chip rack beside each other. For the press-and-pull progression have the chips pointing toward the table – indicating that you want to have the money go in that direction when the number hits. Once you press a bet, flip the corresponding chip to face you – indicating that you want to money to go in your direction when it hits the next time. Keep alternating as it hits.
The up-a-unit progression adds one unit to the place number each time it hits. Using the same $6 place bet on the six, the first time the six hits, you say 'up a unit, please' and the dealer will put $6 of your $7 win on the six and give you $1. The next time the six hits, the dealer will take $6 from your $14 win and add it to the bet on the six and give you $8. Each time the six hits, the dealer will add $6 to the bet and return the difference to you. This is the simplest progression of which I am aware. The only thing you have to remember is 'up a unit'. It is also noteworthy to mention that until you have hit a number at least 7 times, you will win more money playing up-a-unit than press-and-pull. The only exception is hitting the 5, 6, 8, or 9 exactly two times using the press-and-pull method.
32 Across Craps Strategy Tactics
Not all regressions are as drastic as the $110 and down that I've just explained. You could, for example, put $44 inside and when it hits once, go to a six dollar 6 and 8. A single hit on $44 inside would see you win $14. Now with just $12 at risk on the 6 and 8, you are ahead $2. Again such a betting strategy cannot turn a negative into a positive; the house has its damnable edge on each and every bet you make in a random game betting those inside numbers.
Is regression betting worth considering? Yes, it is, if you can stomach putting a lot down and losing it to a 'point-seven out' which will happen often enough to make even those with the strongest stomachs queasy.
Do I enjoy regression betting? No, I do not. As a general rule, once I've gone with a shooter (after assiduously applying the Captain's 5-Count), I'm usually on that shooter come hell or high water. (Is high water considered good in this expression?) I prefer to take the risk to go for the bigger win by keeping my initial bets at their initial levels. But in math terms, against random rollers, I am giving the house a better whack at me than had I regressed.
For controlled shooters, regression betting is probably a more powerful strategy than it is on random shooters. Why? Because controlled shooters will have a tendency to hit certain numbers more than their probabilities indicate (most merely attempt to avoid the 7) – and they will tend to have somewhat longer than average rolls. The longer a controlled shooter rolls, the better the chance that fatigue or distraction will alter his throw, either making the game random once again or, worse, precipitating the appearance of the 7. There is an intriguing speculation amongst the brain trust of Golden Touch™ that controlled shooters, when they are the least off, tend to hit more 7s than normal because they are still changing the nature of the game but, being off slightly, they are changing it for the worse! A regression bettor can capitalize on that and lock up wins before the 7 shows.
Regression betting has its advocates and its opponents. Some people swear by it; some swear at it. In the final analysis, against random shooters, you're betting less; against controlled shooters, you might be getting in for some significant hits before coming down. If you like this as an idea, try it out on your next casino trip and see if you like it as much in reality.
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author. His books and tapes have sold over a million copies. He is executive director of Golden Touch™ Craps dice-control seminars. His websites are www.scoblete.com and www.goldentouchcraps.com . For a free brochure or more information call: 1-800-944-0406 or write to: Paone Press, Box 610, Lynbrook, NY 11563.
32 Across Craps Strategy For Beginners
What is the 'Best' Progression for You?
You have read the books, you have taken the class and you have practiced your throw religiously for several weeks. You are finally to the point where you feel you can go attack the casino and make a 'withdrawal' at the craps table. When you finally arrive you notice a table that has your position available and it is not very crowded. You move to the table, buy in and the dice are about to be passed to you. You focus on the dice in the center of the table; determine what you need to do to quickly set the dice. The stickman slides the dice in your direction. You quickly set them, focus on your spot and launch them. They travel beautifully together, land softly, touch the back wall and die together. Your point is established and you place the six and eight for $12 each. You continue to roll for who knows how long. You are completely in the zone, hitting number after number. You are oblivious to your surroundings. All you energy and attention is on the dice. Eventually you are pulled from your zone by the inevitable words: 'Seven-out, line away.' You look at your watch – you have been rolling for 35 minutes. You are ecstatic. Everything has worked just the way you dreamed. Then you look at your chip rack and put the haphazardly placed collection of chips in order and count them. You find you are up 15 units. This is great, you think, but with a 35-minute roll it should have been more. Then it dawns on you – you did not press your bets.
32 Across Craps Strategy Rules
This is a very common occurrence among those who are reasonably new to careful shooting. You get into the zone and just don't think about anything but throwing the dice. What you need to do is find a way to increase your bets and do it in a nearly automatic way. There are many progression methods available, but many of them require some mental gymnastics that tend to throw you out of the zone. Keep in mind that it is always prudent to only increase your bets on profits. If you are betting the six and eight, you will need at least two wins – three is better – before starting any progression. If you are betting the inside numbers you need three to four wins before increasing your bets.
Two of the simplest progressions are the press-and-pull (or the pull-and-press variant) and the up-a-unit. As the name implies, the press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits. For example you place a $6 six. The first time it hits you take $6 of the $7 you win and press the six to $12. The next time a six rolls you take the $14 win (pull) and put it in your rack. Next hit on the six you use $12 of you $14 win and press the six to $24, etc. Since the dealer automatically knows the amounts you need in order to press a bet, the only thing you need to remember is whether you want to press or pull. This can be easily tracked by putting the same number of chips as you have place bets flat in the chip rack beside each other. For the press-and-pull progression have the chips pointing toward the table – indicating that you want to have the money go in that direction when the number hits. Once you press a bet, flip the corresponding chip to face you – indicating that you want to money to go in your direction when it hits the next time. Keep alternating as it hits.
The up-a-unit progression adds one unit to the place number each time it hits. Using the same $6 place bet on the six, the first time the six hits, you say 'up a unit, please' and the dealer will put $6 of your $7 win on the six and give you $1. The next time the six hits, the dealer will take $6 from your $14 win and add it to the bet on the six and give you $8. Each time the six hits, the dealer will add $6 to the bet and return the difference to you. This is the simplest progression of which I am aware. The only thing you have to remember is 'up a unit'. It is also noteworthy to mention that until you have hit a number at least 7 times, you will win more money playing up-a-unit than press-and-pull. The only exception is hitting the 5, 6, 8, or 9 exactly two times using the press-and-pull method.
32 Across Craps Strategy Tactics
So there you have it - two simple progression strategies. What could be simpler than just saying 'up a unit, please' each time a number hits? Also, this simpler method actually pays better most of the time. Remember two things, however, only raise your bets on winnings and practice is the key to performance and practicing progressions at home will make them a natural part of the routine. Make progressions a part of your winning strategy. For more please read more about progression betting strategies with Parts 2 and Part 3 in this series.
32 Across Craps Strategy Games
Also remember; accept that some days you're the pigeon, and some days you're the statue.
32 Across Craps Strategy Definition
Stickman
